A couple of excerpts that elaborate on the authors’ reasoning:
“The fundamental difficulty we find is that alliances are costly to maintain if there’s no economic incentive,” says Jackson. So networks remain relatively sparse, a condition in which even a few shifting allegiances leaves some countries vulnerable to attack…
Economic trade, however, makes a significant difference. “Once you bring in trade, you see network structures densify,” he says. Nations form a web of trading alliances, which creates financial incentive not only to keep peace with trading partners, but also to protect them from being attacked so as not to disrupt trade. “In the context of the alliances we have analyzed, trade motives are essential to avoiding wars and sustaining stable networks,” the authors wrote in their paper, Networks of Military Alliances, Wars, and International Trade.
Their findings coincide with two major global trends since World War II: From 1950 to 2000, the incidence of interstate war has decreased nearly tenfold compared with the period from 1850 to 1949. At the same time, since 1950 international trade networks have increased nearly fourfold, becoming significantly more dense. “In the period before World War II, it was hard to find a stable set of alliances…The impact of economic interdependence is especially apparent in Europe, Jackson says, where the Eurozone has promoted not only peace and increased trade among nations, but also labor mobility…”
It has been shocking how strong an assault Trump is making on all our institutions. I suppose a lot depends on whether we can get him out before he purges the military. I’m grateful for the astonishing incompetence of Pete Hegseth and Peter Navarro. If not for them, Trump might have gotten further with his military purge before more people noticed the danger this group of power hungry clowns poses to our security and prosperity.
I'm more shocked at the lack of institutional resistance (especially congress). Unlike Germany in 1933, there is a precedent for the US: Germany in 1933. The chief ideologues are using it (taking a leaf from Carl Schmitt for example etc). The opposition is not.
It seems besides the sheer incompetence at display, there is another saving grace: MAGA is exclusively about hate. Compare Hitler: the man genuinely aroused love and passion to rebuild Germany. However brutal to dissenters, Hitler built unity within the majority, won over people on the fence. Trump thrives on discord and really has no love or care for anyone. The German economy and employment actually improved vs pre-1933. The 2025 US had a thriving economy, which MAGA is now trashing. To me Trump and MAGA are closer to Pol Pot than to Hitler. Like Pol Pot they hate intellectuals and revere a mythical past of farmers and tradesmen and "manufacturing" (what? oily gears?) - the charm of the pure and simple life. They don't build anything, they just destroy. They have no charm at all.
I think you are right about war, trade and resources. But I think America’s flirtation with isolationism may be brief as the effects of Trump’s trade war start to show those who didn’t realize it before just how much we benefit from free trade. The polls are starting to turn against Trump on trade. Equity markets are already anticipating the pain but soon the effects will start to show up in store shelves and industrial supply chains. When that happens, Trump will be left with just the hard core Magats behind him. We will surely suffer for having damaged our reputation, but at least sentiment will have turned strongly for a while towards free trade. And if we can get this moron out before he does too much damage to our institutions, we can start to rebuild with a populace more educated in the dangers of isolationism.
I really hope so. I am not American, I am a European living in Asia. I used to live in the US though so I have some concept of what America is like on the ground. Or, was.
America as an idea has always been a guiding light for me (and the world) and I'd like it to return to that condition. On the bright side, if the US survives the current assault on its founding ideas, it will have proven that it is possible to defeat these ideas like one survives a disease, and will be inoculated against it for a long time. It is of course possible that like with any disease, the patient survives, but is crippled. I hope that won't be the case.
The following article is a decade old but I came across it today when thinking about what you wrote here about the increased risk of war because of Trump’s tariffs: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/matthew-o-jackson-can-trade-prevent-war.
A couple of excerpts that elaborate on the authors’ reasoning:
“The fundamental difficulty we find is that alliances are costly to maintain if there’s no economic incentive,” says Jackson. So networks remain relatively sparse, a condition in which even a few shifting allegiances leaves some countries vulnerable to attack…
Economic trade, however, makes a significant difference. “Once you bring in trade, you see network structures densify,” he says. Nations form a web of trading alliances, which creates financial incentive not only to keep peace with trading partners, but also to protect them from being attacked so as not to disrupt trade. “In the context of the alliances we have analyzed, trade motives are essential to avoiding wars and sustaining stable networks,” the authors wrote in their paper, Networks of Military Alliances, Wars, and International Trade.
Their findings coincide with two major global trends since World War II: From 1950 to 2000, the incidence of interstate war has decreased nearly tenfold compared with the period from 1850 to 1949. At the same time, since 1950 international trade networks have increased nearly fourfold, becoming significantly more dense. “In the period before World War II, it was hard to find a stable set of alliances…The impact of economic interdependence is especially apparent in Europe, Jackson says, where the Eurozone has promoted not only peace and increased trade among nations, but also labor mobility…”
It’s just amazing how much Trump sucks.
It has been shocking how strong an assault Trump is making on all our institutions. I suppose a lot depends on whether we can get him out before he purges the military. I’m grateful for the astonishing incompetence of Pete Hegseth and Peter Navarro. If not for them, Trump might have gotten further with his military purge before more people noticed the danger this group of power hungry clowns poses to our security and prosperity.
I'm more shocked at the lack of institutional resistance (especially congress). Unlike Germany in 1933, there is a precedent for the US: Germany in 1933. The chief ideologues are using it (taking a leaf from Carl Schmitt for example etc). The opposition is not.
It seems besides the sheer incompetence at display, there is another saving grace: MAGA is exclusively about hate. Compare Hitler: the man genuinely aroused love and passion to rebuild Germany. However brutal to dissenters, Hitler built unity within the majority, won over people on the fence. Trump thrives on discord and really has no love or care for anyone. The German economy and employment actually improved vs pre-1933. The 2025 US had a thriving economy, which MAGA is now trashing. To me Trump and MAGA are closer to Pol Pot than to Hitler. Like Pol Pot they hate intellectuals and revere a mythical past of farmers and tradesmen and "manufacturing" (what? oily gears?) - the charm of the pure and simple life. They don't build anything, they just destroy. They have no charm at all.
I think you are right about war, trade and resources. But I think America’s flirtation with isolationism may be brief as the effects of Trump’s trade war start to show those who didn’t realize it before just how much we benefit from free trade. The polls are starting to turn against Trump on trade. Equity markets are already anticipating the pain but soon the effects will start to show up in store shelves and industrial supply chains. When that happens, Trump will be left with just the hard core Magats behind him. We will surely suffer for having damaged our reputation, but at least sentiment will have turned strongly for a while towards free trade. And if we can get this moron out before he does too much damage to our institutions, we can start to rebuild with a populace more educated in the dangers of isolationism.
I really hope so. I am not American, I am a European living in Asia. I used to live in the US though so I have some concept of what America is like on the ground. Or, was.
America as an idea has always been a guiding light for me (and the world) and I'd like it to return to that condition. On the bright side, if the US survives the current assault on its founding ideas, it will have proven that it is possible to defeat these ideas like one survives a disease, and will be inoculated against it for a long time. It is of course possible that like with any disease, the patient survives, but is crippled. I hope that won't be the case.